Viking vs Tromso — Eliteserien forecast, Sunday, 25 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Viking
64%
Draw
20%
Tromso
17%
Expected goals
2.41–1.16
Viking · Tromso
Viking win 64% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 2–1 (9.1%), 1–1 (8.7%), 2–0 (8.1%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 63% of simulations.
Those three cover 26% of outcomes; the other 74% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Viking score at least twice in 69%; Tromso in 32%.
Scoreline distribution
Tromso goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 8.7 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.1 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 7.4 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.1 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 3.2 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: Viking goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 66% | 19% | 15% |
| Market reference | 64% | 20% | 17% |
| Metis Forecast | 64% | 20% | 17% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Viking | 1.52 |
| Draw | 4.66 |
| Tromso | 5.51 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Viking
| 14 Mar | A | vs HamKam | 1–2 | L |
| 21 Mar | H | vs Molde | 4–1 | W |
| 6 Apr | A | vs Valerenga | 1–0 | W |
| 11 Apr | H | vs Bodo/Glimt | 5–0 | W |
| 18 Apr | H | vs Brann | 3–2 | W |
Tromso
| 15 Mar | H | vs Fredrikstad | 4–0 | W |
| 22 Mar | A | vs Brann | 2–1 | W |
| 6 Apr | H | vs Rosenborg | 2–0 | W |
| 11 Apr | H | vs Kristiansund | 2–0 | W |
| 15 Apr | H | vs Lillestrom | 0–0 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Viking (Home · 11 matches) | Tromso (Away · 11 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 72.7% | 63.6% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 100.0% | 54.5% |
| Clean sheet | 27.3% | 18.2% |
| Avg goals | 4.82 | 3.73 |
Home stats use Viking's home record; away stats use Tromso's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.