Viking vs Lillestrom — Eliteserien forecast, Sunday, 20 September 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Viking
69%
Draw
17%
Lillestrom
14%
Expected goals
2.71–1.09
Viking · Lillestrom
Viking win 69% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 2–1 (7.8%), 2–0 (7.8%), 3–0 (7.5%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 61% of simulations.
Those three cover 23% of outcomes; the other 77% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Viking score at least twice in 74%; Lillestrom in 30%.
Scoreline distribution
Lillestrom goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 7.3 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 7.9 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 5.5 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: Viking goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 75% | 15% | 10% |
| Market reference | 69% | 17% | 14% |
| Metis Forecast | 69% | 17% | 14% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle | Bet365 | William Hill | 1xBet | Betano | Betfair SB | BetVictor | MarathonBet | SBO | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Viking | 1.43 | 1.40 | 1.40 | 1.43 | 1.42 | 1.36 | 1.36 | 1.39 | 1.36 | 1.43 Pinnacle |
| Draw | 5.54 | 4.75 | 5.00 | 5.34 | 4.90 | 5.00 | 5.00 | 5.20 | 4.78 | 5.54 Pinnacle |
| Lillestrom | 6.51 | 6.50 | 6.00 | 6.26 | 6.30 | 6.50 | 6.00 | 6.10 | 5.51 | 6.51 Pinnacle |
Reference prices, published with the 23 Sep · 03:58 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Viking
| 14 Mar | A | vs HamKam | 1–2 | L |
| 21 Mar | H | vs Molde | 4–1 | W |
| 6 Apr | A | vs Valerenga | 1–0 | W |
| 11 Apr | H | vs Bodo/Glimt | 5–0 | W |
| 18 Apr | H | vs Brann | 3–2 | W |
Lillestrom
| 15 Mar | A | vs Aalesund | 3–1 | W |
| 6 Apr | A | vs Molde | 1–0 | W |
| 11 Apr | H | vs Start | 3–1 | W |
| 15 Apr | A | vs Tromso | 0–0 | D |
| 19 Apr | A | vs Valerenga | 2–0 | W |
Head to head
| 22 Jul 26 | LillestromvsViking | 1 – 2 |
Viking: 1W 0D 0L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | Viking (Home · 10 matches) | Lillestrom (Away · 11 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 70.0% | 27.3% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 100.0% | 36.4% |
| Clean sheet | 30.0% | 36.4% |
| Avg goals | 4.80 | 2.27 |
Home stats use Viking's home record; away stats use Lillestrom's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.