Viking vs Lillestrom — Eliteserien result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 20 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 6.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Viking
71%
pick · result
Draw
16%
Lillestrom
13%
Final score
3–0
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Viking win 70.8% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Viking win. Expected goals 2.76–1.06 against 3–0 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 2–0 (8.1%), 2–1 (8.1%), 3–0 (7.8%). It finished 3–0 — one of them.
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Viking
| 14 Mar | A | vs HamKam | 1–2 | L |
| 21 Mar | H | vs Molde | 4–1 | W |
| 6 Apr | A | vs Valerenga | 1–0 | W |
| 11 Apr | H | vs Bodo/Glimt | 5–0 | W |
| 18 Apr | H | vs Brann | 3–2 | W |
Lillestrom
| 15 Mar | A | vs Aalesund | 3–1 | W |
| 6 Apr | A | vs Molde | 1–0 | W |
| 11 Apr | H | vs Start | 3–1 | W |
| 15 Apr | A | vs Tromso | 0–0 | D |
| 19 Apr | A | vs Valerenga | 2–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Viking (Home · 12 matches) | Lillestrom (Away · 13 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 75.0% | 23.1% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 100.0% | 30.8% |
| Clean sheet | 25.0% | 46.2% |
| Avg goals | 4.75 | 2.15 |
Home stats use Viking's home record; away stats use Lillestrom's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.