Viking vs Aalesund — Eliteserien result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 30 August 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Independent model — no market priceFrozen as published · 7.1 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Viking
83%
pick · result
Draw
12%
Aalesund
6%
Final score
2–1
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Viking win 82.5% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Viking win. Expected goals 3.16–0.81 against 2–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 3–0 (10.0%), 2–0 (9.4%), 3–1 (8.0%). It finished 2–1.
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Viking
| 14 Mar | A | vs HamKam | 1–2 | L |
| 21 Mar | H | vs Molde | 4–1 | W |
| 6 Apr | A | vs Valerenga | 1–0 | W |
| 11 Apr | H | vs Bodo/Glimt | 5–0 | W |
| 18 Apr | H | vs Brann | 3–2 | W |
Aalesund
| 15 Mar | H | vs Lillestrom | 1–3 | L |
| 21 Mar | A | vs Start | 1–1 | D |
| 7 Apr | H | vs Fredrikstad | 2–3 | L |
| 12 Apr | H | vs KFUM Oslo | 2–2 | D |
| 18 Apr | A | vs Bodo/Glimt | 0–3 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Viking (Home · 10 matches) | Aalesund (Away · 10 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 70.0% | 80.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 100.0% | 60.0% |
| Clean sheet | 30.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 4.80 | 3.10 |
Home stats use Viking's home record; away stats use Aalesund's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.