Valerenga vs Tromso — Eliteserien forecast, Sunday, 1 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Valerenga
38%
Draw
25%
Tromso
37%
Expected goals
1.67–1.68
Valerenga · Tromso
Valerenga win 38% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (10.9%), 2–1 (8.6%), 1–2 (7.7%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 67% of simulations.
Those three cover 27% of outcomes; the other 73% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Valerenga score at least twice in 50%; Tromso in 50%.
Scoreline distribution
Tromso goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 10.9 | 7.7 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 8.6 | 7.1 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.6 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: Valerenga goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 35% | 24% | 41% |
| Market reference | 38% | 25% | 37% |
| Metis Forecast | 38% | 25% | 37% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Valerenga | 2.52 |
| Draw | 3.76 |
| Tromso | 2.60 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 26 Oct · 04:41 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Valerenga
| 15 Mar | H | vs Sandefjord | 1–0 | W |
| 22 Mar | A | vs Rosenborg | 2–0 | W |
| 6 Apr | H | vs Viking | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Apr | A | vs Fredrikstad | 1–1 | D |
| 19 Apr | H | vs Lillestrom | 0–2 | L |
Tromso
| 15 Mar | H | vs Fredrikstad | 4–0 | W |
| 22 Mar | A | vs Brann | 2–1 | W |
| 6 Apr | H | vs Rosenborg | 2–0 | W |
| 11 Apr | H | vs Kristiansund | 2–0 | W |
| 15 Apr | H | vs Lillestrom | 0–0 | D |
Head to head
| 11 Jul 26 | TromsovsValerenga | 4 – 0 |
Valerenga: 0W 0D 1L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | Valerenga (Home · 12 matches) | Tromso (Away · 11 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 66.7% | 63.6% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 66.7% | 54.5% |
| Clean sheet | 8.3% | 18.2% |
| Avg goals | 3.58 | 3.73 |
Home stats use Valerenga's home record; away stats use Tromso's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.