Valerenga vs Molde — Eliteserien result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 30 August 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 7.1 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Valerenga
34%
Draw
23%
Molde
43%
pick · result
Final score
3–4
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Molde win 42.9% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Molde win. Expected goals 1.42–1.56 against 3–4 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (10.9%), 1–2 (10.0%), 0–1 (8.0%). It finished 3–4.
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Valerenga
| 15 Mar | H | vs Sandefjord | 1–0 | W |
| 22 Mar | A | vs Rosenborg | 2–0 | W |
| 6 Apr | H | vs Viking | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Apr | A | vs Fredrikstad | 1–1 | D |
| 19 Apr | H | vs Lillestrom | 0–2 | L |
Molde
| 14 Mar | H | vs Rosenborg | 2–0 | W |
| 21 Mar | A | vs Viking | 1–4 | L |
| 6 Apr | H | vs Lillestrom | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Apr | H | vs HamKam | 4–1 | W |
| 19 Apr | A | vs Start | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Valerenga (Home · 11 matches) | Molde (Away · 10 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 63.6% | 80.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 63.6% | 70.0% |
| Clean sheet | 9.1% | 10.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.55 | 3.90 |
Home stats use Valerenga's home record; away stats use Molde's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.