🇳🇴 Eliteserien·Sunday, 30 August 2026·15:00
Odds comparison
| Market | Pinnacle | Best |
|---|---|---|
| Valerenga | 2.75 | 2.75 |
| Draw | 4.01 | 4.01 |
| Molde | 2.30 | 2.30 |
Metis Forecast
model + marketValerenga
35%
Draw
23%
Molde
42%
Valerenga 1.42 xGexpected goals1.47 xG Molde
Molde win 42% of the current Metis Forecast.
Both teams score in 58% of simulations.
The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (11.1%).
Valerenga score at least twice in 41%; Molde in 44%.
1–1 11.1%1–2 10.2%0–1 8.8%2–1 7.4%0–2 6.5%1–0 6.5%
Scoreline distribution
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 8.8 | 6.5 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 11.1 | 10.2 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.4 | 5.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
rows = Valerenga goals · columns = Molde goals · % of simulations
Match outcomes
Both teams score58%
Over 1.5 goals79%
Over 2.5 goals56%
Over 3.5 goals32%
Over 4.5 goals17%
Valerenga clean sheet23%
Molde clean sheet25%
Valerenga score 2+41%
Molde score 2+44%
Valerenga score 3+17%
Model vs market
| Source | Valerenga | Draw | Molde |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 43% | 27% | 31% |
| Market (de-vigged) | 35% | 23% | 42% |
| Metis Forecast | 35% | 23% | 42% |
The Metis Forecast combines the model's scoreline structure with de-vigged market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model output is kept separate and benchmarked independently.
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Valerenga
| 15 Mar | H | vs Sandefjord | 1–0 | W |
| 22 Mar | A | vs Rosenborg | 2–0 | W |
| 6 Apr | H | vs Viking | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Apr | A | vs Fredrikstad | 1–1 | D |
| 19 Apr | H | vs Lillestrom | 0–2 | L |
Molde
| 14 Mar | H | vs Rosenborg | 2–0 | W |
| 21 Mar | A | vs Viking | 1–4 | L |
| 6 Apr | H | vs Lillestrom | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Apr | H | vs HamKam | 4–1 | W |
| 19 Apr | A | vs Start | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
| 26 Apr 26 | MoldevsValerenga | 5 – 1 |
Valerenga: 0W 0D 1L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | Valerenga (Home) | Molde (Away) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 55.6% | 75.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 66.7% | 62.5% |
| Clean sheet | 11.1% | 12.5% |
| Avg goals | 3.33 | 3.25 |
Home stats use Valerenga's home record; away stats use Molde's away record this season.