Valerenga vs Fredrikstad — Eliteserien forecast, Sunday, 20 September 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Valerenga
48%
Draw
24%
Fredrikstad
28%
Expected goals
1.81–1.35
Valerenga · Fredrikstad
Valerenga win 48% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (10.8%), 2–1 (9.7%), 1–0 (7.1%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 63% of simulations.
Those three cover 28% of outcomes; the other 72% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Valerenga win is 2–1 (9.7%).
Valerenga score at least twice in 54%; Fredrikstad in 39%.
Scoreline distribution
Fredrikstad goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 10.8 | 6.9 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.7 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.7 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Valerenga goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 46% | 25% | 29% |
| Market reference | 48% | 24% | 28% |
| Metis Forecast | 48% | 24% | 28% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle | Bet365 | William Hill | 1xBet | Betano | Betfair SB | BetVictor | MarathonBet | SBO | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valerenga | 2.02 | 2.00 | 1.95 | 2.00 | 2.02 | 1.90 | 1.95 | 1.95 | 2.04 | 2.04 SBO |
| Draw | 4.05 | 3.75 | 3.70 | 3.82 | 3.70 | 4.00 | 3.70 | 3.72 | 3.31 | 4.05 Pinnacle |
| Fredrikstad | 3.43 | 3.30 | 3.25 | 3.49 | 3.30 | 3.50 | 3.20 | 3.40 | 2.96 | 3.50 Betfair SB |
Reference prices, published with the 23 Sep · 03:58 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Valerenga
| 15 Mar | H | vs Sandefjord | 1–0 | W |
| 22 Mar | A | vs Rosenborg | 2–0 | W |
| 6 Apr | H | vs Viking | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Apr | A | vs Fredrikstad | 1–1 | D |
| 19 Apr | H | vs Lillestrom | 0–2 | L |
Fredrikstad
| 15 Mar | A | vs Tromso | 0–4 | L |
| 22 Mar | H | vs KFUM Oslo | 3–1 | W |
| 7 Apr | A | vs Aalesund | 3–2 | W |
| 12 Apr | H | vs Valerenga | 1–1 | D |
| 19 Apr | A | vs Kristiansund | 0–2 | L |
Head to head
| 12 Apr 26 | FredrikstadvsValerenga | 1 – 1 |
Valerenga: 0W 1D 0L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | Valerenga (Home · 11 matches) | Fredrikstad (Away · 11 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 63.6% | 54.5% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 63.6% | 54.5% |
| Clean sheet | 9.1% | 9.1% |
| Avg goals | 3.55 | 3.00 |
Home stats use Valerenga's home record; away stats use Fredrikstad's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.