Valerenga vs Fredrikstad — Eliteserien result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 20 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 4.1 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Valerenga
48%
top pick
Draw
24%
result
Fredrikstad
28%
Final score
1–1
Top pick missed
Metis gave the draw 23.7% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Valerenga win. Expected goals 1.81–1.35 against 1–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (10.8%), 2–1 (9.7%), 1–0 (7.1%). It finished 1–1 — one of them.
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Valerenga
| 15 Mar | H | vs Sandefjord | 1–0 | W |
| 22 Mar | A | vs Rosenborg | 2–0 | W |
| 6 Apr | H | vs Viking | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Apr | A | vs Fredrikstad | 1–1 | D |
| 19 Apr | H | vs Lillestrom | 0–2 | L |
Fredrikstad
| 15 Mar | A | vs Tromso | 0–4 | L |
| 22 Mar | H | vs KFUM Oslo | 3–1 | W |
| 7 Apr | A | vs Aalesund | 3–2 | W |
| 12 Apr | H | vs Valerenga | 1–1 | D |
| 19 Apr | A | vs Kristiansund | 0–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Valerenga (Home · 13 matches) | Fredrikstad (Away · 13 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 61.5% | 61.5% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 69.2% | 61.5% |
| Clean sheet | 15.4% | 7.7% |
| Avg goals | 3.62 | 3.38 |
Home stats use Valerenga's home record; away stats use Fredrikstad's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.