🇳🇴 Eliteserien·Sunday, 30 August 2026·15:00
Odds comparison
| Market | Pinnacle | Best |
|---|---|---|
| Tromso | 1.67 | 1.67 |
| Draw | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| Sarpsborg 08 | 4.93 | 4.93 |
Metis Forecast
model + marketTromso
58%
Draw
23%
Sarpsborg 08
19%
Tromso 1.94 xGexpected goals1.06 xG Sarpsborg 08
Tromso win 58% of the current Metis Forecast.
Both teams score in 57% of simulations.
The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (11.0%).
Tromso score at least twice in 58%; Sarpsborg 08 in 29%.
1–1 11.0%2–1 10.4%2–0 9.4%1–0 9.1%3–1 6.6%3–0 5.9%
Scoreline distribution
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 11.0 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 10.4 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 6.6 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.5 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
rows = Tromso goals · columns = Sarpsborg 08 goals · % of simulations
Match outcomes
Both teams score57%
Over 1.5 goals81%
Over 2.5 goals58%
Over 3.5 goals35%
Over 4.5 goals19%
Tromso clean sheet34%
Sarpsborg 08 clean sheet14%
Tromso score 2+58%
Sarpsborg 08 score 2+29%
Tromso score 3+31%
Model vs market
| Source | Tromso | Draw | Sarpsborg 08 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 56% | 24% | 20% |
| Market (de-vigged) | 58% | 23% | 19% |
| Metis Forecast | 58% | 23% | 19% |
The Metis Forecast combines the model's scoreline structure with de-vigged market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model output is kept separate and benchmarked independently.
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Tromso
| 15 Mar | H | vs Fredrikstad | 4–0 | W |
| 22 Mar | A | vs Brann | 2–1 | W |
| 6 Apr | H | vs Rosenborg | 2–0 | W |
| 11 Apr | H | vs Kristiansund | 2–0 | W |
| 15 Apr | H | vs Lillestrom | 0–0 | D |
Sarpsborg 08
| 22 Mar | A | vs Sandefjord | 2–0 | W |
| 6 Apr | H | vs Start | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Apr | A | vs Rosenborg | 1–2 | L |
| 15 Apr | H | vs Bodo/Glimt | 1–1 | D |
| 19 Apr | H | vs Tromso | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
| 19 Apr 26 | Sarpsborg 08vsTromso | 0 – 1 |
Tromso: 1W 0D 0L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | Tromso (Home) | Sarpsborg 08 (Away) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 22.2% | 55.6% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 44.4% | 66.7% |
| Clean sheet | 66.7% | 22.2% |
| Avg goals | 2.78 | 3.00 |
Home stats use Tromso's home record; away stats use Sarpsborg 08's away record this season.