Tromso vs Sarpsborg 08 — Eliteserien result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 30 August 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 7.1 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Tromso
57%
top pick
Draw
24%
result
Sarpsborg 08
20%
Final score
0–0
Top pick missed
Metis gave the draw 23.9% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Tromso win. Expected goals 1.97–1.12 against 0–0 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (11.1%), 2–1 (10.1%), 2–0 (8.8%). It finished 0–0.
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Tromso
| 15 Mar | H | vs Fredrikstad | 4–0 | W |
| 22 Mar | A | vs Brann | 2–1 | W |
| 6 Apr | H | vs Rosenborg | 2–0 | W |
| 11 Apr | H | vs Kristiansund | 2–0 | W |
| 15 Apr | H | vs Lillestrom | 0–0 | D |
Sarpsborg 08
| 22 Mar | A | vs Sandefjord | 2–0 | W |
| 6 Apr | H | vs Start | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Apr | A | vs Rosenborg | 1–2 | L |
| 15 Apr | H | vs Bodo/Glimt | 1–1 | D |
| 19 Apr | H | vs Tromso | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Tromso (Home · 11 matches) | Sarpsborg 08 (Away · 11 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 27.3% | 54.5% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 45.5% | 54.5% |
| Clean sheet | 63.6% | 27.3% |
| Avg goals | 2.73 | 2.64 |
Home stats use Tromso's home record; away stats use Sarpsborg 08's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.