Tromso vs HamKam — Eliteserien result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 20 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 6.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Tromso
66%
pick · result
Draw
19%
Ham-Kam
14%
Final score
3–2
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Tromso win 66.3% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Tromso win. Expected goals 2.23–0.96 against 3–2 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 2–0 (10.4%), 2–1 (10.2%), 1–1 (9.0%). It finished 3–2.
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Tromso
| 15 Mar | H | vs Fredrikstad | 4–0 | W |
| 22 Mar | A | vs Brann | 2–1 | W |
| 6 Apr | H | vs Rosenborg | 2–0 | W |
| 11 Apr | H | vs Kristiansund | 2–0 | W |
| 15 Apr | H | vs Lillestrom | 0–0 | D |
HamKam
| 14 Mar | H | vs Viking | 2–1 | W |
| 6 Apr | H | vs Brann | 1–5 | L |
| 12 Apr | A | vs Molde | 1–4 | L |
| 19 Apr | H | vs KFUM Oslo | 4–0 | W |
| 26 Apr | H | vs Start | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Tromso (Home · 12 matches) | HamKam (Away · 13 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 33.3% | 61.5% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 41.7% | 84.6% |
| Clean sheet | 58.3% | 7.7% |
| Avg goals | 2.67 | 3.62 |
Home stats use Tromso's home record; away stats use HamKam's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.