Start vs Sandefjord — Eliteserien forecast, Sunday, 25 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Start
45%
Draw
24%
Sandefjord
31%
Expected goals
1.61–1.38
Start · Sandefjord
Start win 45% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11.0%), 2–1 (10.4%), 1–0 (8.3%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 60% of simulations.
Those three cover 30% of outcomes; the other 70% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Start win is 2–1 (10.4%).
Start score at least twice in 49%; Sandefjord in 40%.
Scoreline distribution
Sandefjord goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 5.6 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.0 | 7.1 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 10.4 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 5.1 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Start goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 36% | 26% | 38% |
| Market reference | 45% | 24% | 31% |
| Metis Forecast | 45% | 24% | 31% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Start | 2.14 |
| Draw | 3.98 |
| Sandefjord | 3.03 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Recent form
Start
| 15 Mar | A | vs KFUM Oslo | 0–2 | L |
| 21 Mar | H | vs Aalesund | 1–1 | D |
| 6 Apr | A | vs Sarpsborg 08 | 1–1 | D |
| 11 Apr | A | vs Lillestrom | 1–3 | L |
| 19 Apr | H | vs Molde | 1–1 | D |
Sandefjord
| 15 Mar | A | vs Valerenga | 0–1 | L |
| 22 Mar | H | vs Sarpsborg 08 | 0–2 | L |
| 7 Apr | A | vs KFUM Oslo | 2–1 | W |
| 12 Apr | A | vs Brann | 1–0 | W |
| 18 Apr | H | vs Rosenborg | 0–0 | D |
Head to head
| 20 Sept 26 | SandefjordvsStart | 3 – 0 |
Start: 0W 0D 1L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | Start (Home · 11 matches) | Sandefjord (Away · 11 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 54.5% | 72.7% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 45.5% | 63.6% |
| Clean sheet | 18.2% | 9.1% |
| Avg goals | 3.00 | 2.73 |
Home stats use Start's home record; away stats use Sandefjord's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.