Start vs Lillestrom — Eliteserien forecast, Sunday, 1 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Start
34%
Draw
25%
Lillestrom
40%
Expected goals
1.47–1.63
Start · Lillestrom
Lillestrom win 40% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11.6%), 1–2 (8.6%), 2–1 (8.1%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 63% of simulations.
Those three cover 28% of outcomes; the other 72% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Start score at least twice in 43%; Lillestrom in 48%.
Scoreline distribution
Lillestrom goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 6.4 | 6.0 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 11.6 | 8.6 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 8.1 | 6.4 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.9 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Start goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 33% | 25% | 42% |
| Market reference | 34% | 25% | 40% |
| Metis Forecast | 34% | 25% | 40% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Start | 2.79 |
| Draw | 3.71 |
| Lillestrom | 2.38 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 26 Oct · 04:41 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Start
| 15 Mar | A | vs KFUM Oslo | 0–2 | L |
| 21 Mar | H | vs Aalesund | 1–1 | D |
| 6 Apr | A | vs Sarpsborg 08 | 1–1 | D |
| 11 Apr | A | vs Lillestrom | 1–3 | L |
| 19 Apr | H | vs Molde | 1–1 | D |
Lillestrom
| 15 Mar | A | vs Aalesund | 3–1 | W |
| 6 Apr | A | vs Molde | 1–0 | W |
| 11 Apr | H | vs Start | 3–1 | W |
| 15 Apr | A | vs Tromso | 0–0 | D |
| 19 Apr | A | vs Valerenga | 2–0 | W |
Head to head
| 11 Apr 26 | LillestromvsStart | 3 – 1 |
Start: 0W 0D 1L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | Start (Home · 11 matches) | Lillestrom (Away · 12 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 54.5% | 25.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 45.5% | 33.3% |
| Clean sheet | 18.2% | 41.7% |
| Avg goals | 3.00 | 2.25 |
Home stats use Start's home record; away stats use Lillestrom's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.