Sarpsborg 08 vs Kristiansund — Eliteserien forecast, Sunday, 1 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Sarpsborg 08
63%
Draw
22%
Kristiansund
15%
Expected goals
2.16–1.07
Sarpsborg 08 · Kristiansund
Sarpsborg 08 win 63% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 2–1 (10.9%), 1–1 (10.0%), 2–0 (9.4%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 60% of simulations.
Those three cover 30% of outcomes; the other 70% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Sarpsborg 08 score at least twice in 64%; Kristiansund in 29%.
Scoreline distribution
Kristiansund goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 10.0 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 10.9 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 7.4 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Sarpsborg 08 goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 58% | 23% | 19% |
| Market reference | 63% | 22% | 15% |
| Metis Forecast | 63% | 22% | 15% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Sarpsborg 08 | 1.54 |
| Draw | 4.29 |
| Kristiansund | 5.93 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 26 Oct · 04:41 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Sarpsborg 08
| 22 Mar | A | vs Sandefjord | 2–0 | W |
| 6 Apr | H | vs Start | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Apr | A | vs Rosenborg | 1–2 | L |
| 15 Apr | H | vs Bodo/Glimt | 1–1 | D |
| 19 Apr | H | vs Tromso | 0–1 | L |
Kristiansund
| 15 Mar | H | vs Brann | 3–2 | W |
| 6 Apr | H | vs Bodo/Glimt | 0–3 | L |
| 11 Apr | A | vs Tromso | 0–2 | L |
| 19 Apr | H | vs Fredrikstad | 2–0 | W |
| 26 Apr | A | vs Aalesund | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
| 18 Jul 26 | KristiansundvsSarpsborg 08 | 0 – 0 |
Sarpsborg 08: 0W 1D 0L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | Sarpsborg 08 (Home · 11 matches) | Kristiansund (Away · 12 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 63.6% | 58.3% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 54.5% | 58.3% |
| Clean sheet | 18.2% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.45 | 3.17 |
Home stats use Sarpsborg 08's home record; away stats use Kristiansund's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.