Sandefjord vs Start — Eliteserien result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 20 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 6.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Sandefjord
45%
pick · result
Draw
26%
Start
29%
Final score
3–0
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Sandefjord win 44.9% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Sandefjord win. Expected goals 1.67–1.33 against 3–0 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (12.1%), 2–1 (9.5%), 1–0 (7.5%). It finished 3–0.
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Sandefjord
| 15 Mar | A | vs Valerenga | 0–1 | L |
| 22 Mar | H | vs Sarpsborg 08 | 0–2 | L |
| 7 Apr | A | vs KFUM Oslo | 2–1 | W |
| 12 Apr | A | vs Brann | 1–0 | W |
| 18 Apr | H | vs Rosenborg | 0–0 | D |
Start
| 15 Mar | A | vs KFUM Oslo | 0–2 | L |
| 21 Mar | H | vs Aalesund | 1–1 | D |
| 6 Apr | A | vs Sarpsborg 08 | 1–1 | D |
| 11 Apr | A | vs Lillestrom | 1–3 | L |
| 19 Apr | H | vs Molde | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Sandefjord (Home · 12 matches) | Start (Away · 12 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 25.0% | 66.7% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 25.0% | 75.0% |
| Clean sheet | 41.7% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 1.83 | 3.83 |
Home stats use Sandefjord's home record; away stats use Start's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.