Sandefjord vs Start — Eliteserien forecast, Sunday, 20 September 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Sandefjord
48%
Draw
26%
Start
27%
Expected goals
1.72–1.30
Sandefjord · Start
Sandefjord win 48% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11.8%), 2–1 (10.0%), 1–0 (7.9%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 61% of simulations.
Those three cover 30% of outcomes; the other 70% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Sandefjord win is 2–1 (10.0%).
Sandefjord score at least twice in 52%; Start in 37%.
Scoreline distribution
Start goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.8 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 10.0 | 6.2 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.5 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Sandefjord goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 43% | 26% | 31% |
| Market reference | 48% | 26% | 27% |
| Metis Forecast | 48% | 26% | 27% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle | Bet365 | William Hill | 1xBet | Betano | Betfair SB | BetVictor | MarathonBet | SBO | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sandefjord | 2.02 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.03 | 2.02 | 2.00 | 1.95 | 1.98 | 1.98 | 2.03 1xBet |
| Draw | 3.81 | 3.60 | 3.40 | 3.63 | 3.50 | 3.70 | 3.60 | 3.54 | 3.35 | 3.81 Pinnacle |
| Start | 3.63 | 3.50 | 3.30 | 3.57 | 3.40 | 3.25 | 3.30 | 3.48 | 3.07 | 3.63 Pinnacle |
Reference prices, published with the 23 Sep · 03:58 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Sandefjord
| 15 Mar | A | vs Valerenga | 0–1 | L |
| 22 Mar | H | vs Sarpsborg 08 | 0–2 | L |
| 7 Apr | A | vs KFUM Oslo | 2–1 | W |
| 12 Apr | A | vs Brann | 1–0 | W |
| 18 Apr | H | vs Rosenborg | 0–0 | D |
Start
| 15 Mar | A | vs KFUM Oslo | 0–2 | L |
| 21 Mar | H | vs Aalesund | 1–1 | D |
| 6 Apr | A | vs Sarpsborg 08 | 1–1 | D |
| 11 Apr | A | vs Lillestrom | 1–3 | L |
| 19 Apr | H | vs Molde | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Sandefjord (Home · 11 matches) | Start (Away · 11 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 27.3% | 63.6% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 27.3% | 72.7% |
| Clean sheet | 45.5% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 1.82 | 3.55 |
Home stats use Sandefjord's home record; away stats use Start's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.