Sandefjord vs Molde — Eliteserien forecast, Sunday, 8 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Sandefjord
23%
Draw
21%
Molde
56%
Expected goals
1.24–1.98
Sandefjord · Molde
Molde win 56% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–2 (10.9%), 1–1 (9.5%), 0–2 (8.3%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 62% of simulations.
Those three cover 29% of outcomes; the other 71% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Sandefjord score at least twice in 35%; Molde in 60%.
Scoreline distribution
Molde goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 8.0 | 8.2 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 4.0 | 9.5 | 10.9 | 6.7 | 3.1 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 5.8 | 5.4 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Sandefjord goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 26% | 24% | 49% |
| Market reference | 23% | 21% | 56% |
| Metis Forecast | 23% | 21% | 56% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Sandefjord | 4.12 |
| Draw | 4.49 |
| Molde | 1.71 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 02 Nov · 05:06 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Sandefjord
| 15 Mar | A | vs Valerenga | 0–1 | L |
| 22 Mar | H | vs Sarpsborg 08 | 0–2 | L |
| 7 Apr | A | vs KFUM Oslo | 2–1 | W |
| 12 Apr | A | vs Brann | 1–0 | W |
| 18 Apr | H | vs Rosenborg | 0–0 | D |
Molde
| 14 Mar | H | vs Rosenborg | 2–0 | W |
| 21 Mar | A | vs Viking | 1–4 | L |
| 6 Apr | H | vs Lillestrom | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Apr | H | vs HamKam | 4–1 | W |
| 19 Apr | A | vs Start | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
| 30 May 26 | MoldevsSandefjord | 2 – 1 |
Sandefjord: 0W 0D 1L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | Sandefjord (Home · 12 matches) | Molde (Away · 11 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 25.0% | 81.8% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 25.0% | 72.7% |
| Clean sheet | 41.7% | 9.1% |
| Avg goals | 1.83 | 3.91 |
Home stats use Sandefjord's home record; away stats use Molde's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.