Rosenborg vs Tromso — Eliteserien result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 12 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 7.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Rosenborg
59%
pick · result
Draw
23%
Tromso
19%
Final score
5–3
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Rosenborg win 58.6% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Rosenborg win. Expected goals 1.99–1.10 against 5–3 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 2–1 (10.8%), 1–1 (10.5%), 2–0 (9.2%). It finished 5–3.
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Rosenborg
| 14 Mar | A | vs Molde | 0–2 | L |
| 22 Mar | H | vs Valerenga | 0–2 | L |
| 6 Apr | A | vs Tromso | 0–2 | L |
| 12 Apr | H | vs Sarpsborg 08 | 2–1 | W |
| 18 Apr | A | vs Sandefjord | 0–0 | D |
Tromso
| 15 Mar | H | vs Fredrikstad | 4–0 | W |
| 22 Mar | A | vs Brann | 2–1 | W |
| 6 Apr | H | vs Rosenborg | 2–0 | W |
| 11 Apr | H | vs Kristiansund | 2–0 | W |
| 15 Apr | H | vs Lillestrom | 0–0 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Rosenborg (Home · 12 matches) | Tromso (Away · 13 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 58.3% | 61.5% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 66.7% | 61.5% |
| Clean sheet | 33.3% | 15.4% |
| Avg goals | 3.50 | 3.77 |
Home stats use Rosenborg's home record; away stats use Tromso's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.