Rosenborg vs Start — Eliteserien forecast, Saturday, 7 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Rosenborg
79%
Draw
13%
Start
8%
Expected goals
3.13–0.91
Rosenborg · Start
Rosenborg win 79% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 3–0 (9.0%), 2–0 (8.4%), 3–1 (7.8%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 57% of simulations.
Those three cover 25% of outcomes; the other 75% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Rosenborg score at least twice in 81%; Start in 23%.
Scoreline distribution
Start goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 7.3 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 9.0 | 7.8 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 7.3 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 9.0 | 7.8 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
Rows: Rosenborg goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 82% | 12% | 6% |
| Market reference | 79% | 13% | 8% |
| Metis Forecast | 79% | 13% | 8% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Rosenborg | 1.23 |
| Draw | 7.17 |
| Start | 10.34 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 02 Nov · 05:06 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Rosenborg
| 14 Mar | A | vs Molde | 0–2 | L |
| 22 Mar | H | vs Valerenga | 0–2 | L |
| 6 Apr | A | vs Tromso | 0–2 | L |
| 12 Apr | H | vs Sarpsborg 08 | 2–1 | W |
| 18 Apr | A | vs Sandefjord | 0–0 | D |
Start
| 15 Mar | A | vs KFUM Oslo | 0–2 | L |
| 21 Mar | H | vs Aalesund | 1–1 | D |
| 6 Apr | A | vs Sarpsborg 08 | 1–1 | D |
| 11 Apr | A | vs Lillestrom | 1–3 | L |
| 19 Apr | H | vs Molde | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
| 18 Jul 26 | StartvsRosenborg | 0 – 3 |
Rosenborg: 1W 0D 0L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | Rosenborg (Home · 12 matches) | Start (Away · 12 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 58.3% | 66.7% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 66.7% | 75.0% |
| Clean sheet | 33.3% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.50 | 3.83 |
Home stats use Rosenborg's home record; away stats use Start's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.