Rosenborg vs HamKam — Eliteserien result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 5 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 6.1 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Rosenborg
73%
pick · result
Draw
16%
Ham-Kam
10%
Final score
4–0
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Rosenborg win 73.3% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Rosenborg win. Expected goals 2.46–0.93 against 4–0 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 2–1 (10.9%), 2–0 (10.7%), 1–0 (8.5%). It finished 4–0.
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Rosenborg
| 14 Mar | A | vs Molde | 0–2 | L |
| 22 Mar | H | vs Valerenga | 0–2 | L |
| 6 Apr | A | vs Tromso | 0–2 | L |
| 12 Apr | H | vs Sarpsborg 08 | 2–1 | W |
| 18 Apr | A | vs Sandefjord | 0–0 | D |
HamKam
| 14 Mar | H | vs Viking | 2–1 | W |
| 6 Apr | H | vs Brann | 1–5 | L |
| 12 Apr | A | vs Molde | 1–4 | L |
| 19 Apr | H | vs KFUM Oslo | 4–0 | W |
| 26 Apr | H | vs Start | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Rosenborg (Home · 11 matches) | HamKam (Away · 11 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 54.5% | 54.5% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 72.7% | 81.8% |
| Clean sheet | 36.4% | 9.1% |
| Avg goals | 3.64 | 3.36 |
Home stats use Rosenborg's home record; away stats use HamKam's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.