Molde vs Fredrikstad — Eliteserien forecast, Sunday, 25 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Molde
66%
Draw
19%
Fredrikstad
15%
Expected goals
2.33–0.99
Molde · Fredrikstad
Molde win 66% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 2–0 (9.8%), 2–1 (9.4%), 1–1 (8.8%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 57% of simulations.
Those three cover 28% of outcomes; the other 72% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Molde score at least twice in 67%; Fredrikstad in 26%.
Scoreline distribution
Fredrikstad goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 8.8 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.4 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.7 | 7.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.6 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 3.4 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Molde goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 68% | 19% | 13% |
| Market reference | 66% | 19% | 15% |
| Metis Forecast | 66% | 19% | 15% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Molde | 1.46 |
| Draw | 4.87 |
| Fredrikstad | 6.16 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Molde
| 14 Mar | H | vs Rosenborg | 2–0 | W |
| 21 Mar | A | vs Viking | 1–4 | L |
| 6 Apr | H | vs Lillestrom | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Apr | H | vs HamKam | 4–1 | W |
| 19 Apr | A | vs Start | 1–1 | D |
Fredrikstad
| 15 Mar | A | vs Tromso | 0–4 | L |
| 22 Mar | H | vs KFUM Oslo | 3–1 | W |
| 7 Apr | A | vs Aalesund | 3–2 | W |
| 12 Apr | H | vs Valerenga | 1–1 | D |
| 19 Apr | A | vs Kristiansund | 0–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Molde (Home · 12 matches) | Fredrikstad (Away · 12 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 66.7% | 58.3% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 66.7% | 58.3% |
| Clean sheet | 25.0% | 8.3% |
| Avg goals | 3.67 | 3.17 |
Home stats use Molde's home record; away stats use Fredrikstad's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.