Molde vs Aalesund — Eliteserien result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 19 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 12.4 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Molde
71%
top pick
Draw
16%
Aalesund
12%
result
Final score
1–2
Top pick missed
Metis gave an Aalesund win 12.5% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Molde win. Expected goals 2.80–1.00 against 1–2 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 2–0 (8.3%), 3–0 (8.2%), 2–1 (7.5%). It finished 1–2.
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Molde
| 14 Mar | H | vs Rosenborg | 2–0 | W |
| 21 Mar | A | vs Viking | 1–4 | L |
| 6 Apr | H | vs Lillestrom | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Apr | H | vs HamKam | 4–1 | W |
| 19 Apr | A | vs Start | 1–1 | D |
Aalesund
| 15 Mar | H | vs Lillestrom | 1–3 | L |
| 21 Mar | A | vs Start | 1–1 | D |
| 7 Apr | H | vs Fredrikstad | 2–3 | L |
| 12 Apr | H | vs KFUM Oslo | 2–2 | D |
| 18 Apr | A | vs Bodo/Glimt | 0–3 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Molde (Home · 13 matches) | Aalesund (Away · 12 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 69.2% | 83.3% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 69.2% | 66.7% |
| Clean sheet | 23.1% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.85 | 3.25 |
Home stats use Molde's home record; away stats use Aalesund's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.