Lillestrom vs Valerenga — Eliteserien result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 12 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 5.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Lillestrom
48%
pick · result
Draw
23%
Valerenga
28%
Final score
2–0
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Lillestrom win 48.3% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Lillestrom win. Expected goals 1.92–1.49 against 2–0 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (10.1%), 2–1 (9.7%), 2–2 (6.7%). It finished 2–0.
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Lillestrom
| 15 Mar | A | vs Aalesund | 3–1 | W |
| 6 Apr | A | vs Molde | 1–0 | W |
| 11 Apr | H | vs Start | 3–1 | W |
| 15 Apr | A | vs Tromso | 0–0 | D |
| 19 Apr | A | vs Valerenga | 2–0 | W |
Valerenga
| 15 Mar | H | vs Sandefjord | 1–0 | W |
| 22 Mar | A | vs Rosenborg | 2–0 | W |
| 6 Apr | H | vs Viking | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Apr | A | vs Fredrikstad | 1–1 | D |
| 19 Apr | H | vs Lillestrom | 0–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Lillestrom (Home · 12 matches) | Valerenga (Away · 12 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 66.7% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 75.0% | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | 16.7% | 16.7% |
| Avg goals | 3.42 | 3.50 |
Home stats use Lillestrom's home record; away stats use Valerenga's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.