Lillestrom vs Fredrikstad — Eliteserien result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 30 August 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 9.3 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Lillestrom
54%
top pick
Draw
26%
Fredrikstad
21%
result
Final score
1–4
Top pick missed
Metis gave a Fredrikstad win 20.7% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Lillestrom win. Expected goals 1.77–1.19 against 1–4 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 2–1 (12.1%), 1–1 (12.0%), 1–0 (9.8%). It finished 1–4.
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Lillestrom
| 15 Mar | A | vs Aalesund | 3–1 | W |
| 6 Apr | A | vs Molde | 1–0 | W |
| 11 Apr | H | vs Start | 3–1 | W |
| 15 Apr | A | vs Tromso | 0–0 | D |
| 19 Apr | A | vs Valerenga | 2–0 | W |
Fredrikstad
| 15 Mar | A | vs Tromso | 0–4 | L |
| 22 Mar | H | vs KFUM Oslo | 3–1 | W |
| 7 Apr | A | vs Aalesund | 3–2 | W |
| 12 Apr | H | vs Valerenga | 1–1 | D |
| 19 Apr | A | vs Kristiansund | 0–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Lillestrom (Home · 10 matches) | Fredrikstad (Away · 11 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 60.0% | 54.5% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 70.0% | 54.5% |
| Clean sheet | 20.0% | 9.1% |
| Avg goals | 3.20 | 3.00 |
Home stats use Lillestrom's home record; away stats use Fredrikstad's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.