🇳🇴 Eliteserien·Sunday, 30 August 2026·17:15
Odds comparison
| Market | Pinnacle | Best |
|---|---|---|
| Lillestrom | 1.77 | 1.77 |
| Draw | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| Fredrikstad | 4.81 | 4.81 |
Metis Forecast
model + marketLillestrom
55%
Draw
26%
Fredrikstad
19%
Lillestrom 1.81 xGexpected goals1.15 xG Fredrikstad
Lillestrom win 55% of the current Metis Forecast.
Both teams score in 60% of simulations.
The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (12.2%).
Lillestrom score at least twice in 56%; Fredrikstad in 31%.
1–1 12.2%2–1 11.7%1–0 9.7%2–0 8.6%3–1 6.2%0–0 6.1%
Scoreline distribution
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 3.8 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.2 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 11.7 | 6.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 6.2 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
rows = Lillestrom goals · columns = Fredrikstad goals · % of simulations
Match outcomes
Both teams score60%
Over 1.5 goals80%
Over 2.5 goals57%
Over 3.5 goals34%
Over 4.5 goals18%
Lillestrom clean sheet32%
Fredrikstad clean sheet15%
Lillestrom score 2+56%
Fredrikstad score 2+31%
Lillestrom score 3+27%
Model vs market
| Source | Lillestrom | Draw | Fredrikstad |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 42% | 26% | 32% |
| Market (de-vigged) | 55% | 26% | 19% |
| Metis Forecast | 55% | 26% | 19% |
The Metis Forecast combines the model's scoreline structure with de-vigged market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model output is kept separate and benchmarked independently.
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Recent form
Lillestrom
| 15 Mar | A | vs Aalesund | 3–1 | W |
| 6 Apr | A | vs Molde | 1–0 | W |
| 11 Apr | H | vs Start | 3–1 | W |
| 15 Apr | A | vs Tromso | 0–0 | D |
| 19 Apr | A | vs Valerenga | 2–0 | W |
Fredrikstad
| 15 Mar | A | vs Tromso | 0–4 | L |
| 22 Mar | H | vs KFUM Oslo | 3–1 | W |
| 7 Apr | A | vs Aalesund | 3–2 | W |
| 12 Apr | H | vs Valerenga | 1–1 | D |
| 19 Apr | A | vs Kristiansund | 0–2 | L |
Head to head
| 11 Jul 26 | FredrikstadvsLillestrom | 0 – 2 |
Lillestrom: 1W 0D 0L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | Lillestrom (Home) | Fredrikstad (Away) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 62.5% | 44.4% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 75.0% | 55.6% |
| Clean sheet | 12.5% | 11.1% |
| Avg goals | 3.12 | 2.89 |
Home stats use Lillestrom's home record; away stats use Fredrikstad's away record this season.