Lillestrom vs Brann — Eliteserien forecast, Sunday, 25 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Lillestrom
42%
Draw
24%
Brann
33%
Expected goals
1.72–1.63
Lillestrom · Brann
Lillestrom win 42% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (10.6%), 2–1 (10.0%), 2–2 (6.9%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 67% of simulations.
Those three cover 28% of outcomes; the other 72% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Lillestrom win is 2–1 (10.0%).
Lillestrom score at least twice in 52%; Brann in 48%.
Scoreline distribution
Brann goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 4.4 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 10.6 | 6.6 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 10.0 | 6.9 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 5.1 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: Lillestrom goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 31% | 24% | 45% |
| Market reference | 42% | 24% | 33% |
| Metis Forecast | 42% | 24% | 33% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Lillestrom | 2.27 |
| Draw | 3.86 |
| Brann | 2.86 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Lillestrom
| 15 Mar | A | vs Aalesund | 3–1 | W |
| 6 Apr | A | vs Molde | 1–0 | W |
| 11 Apr | H | vs Start | 3–1 | W |
| 15 Apr | A | vs Tromso | 0–0 | D |
| 19 Apr | A | vs Valerenga | 2–0 | W |
Brann
| 15 Mar | A | vs Kristiansund | 2–3 | L |
| 22 Mar | H | vs Tromso | 1–2 | L |
| 6 Apr | A | vs HamKam | 5–1 | W |
| 12 Apr | H | vs Sandefjord | 0–1 | L |
| 18 Apr | A | vs Viking | 2–3 | L |
Head to head
| 5 Sept 26 | BrannvsLillestrom | 1 – 2 |
Lillestrom: 1W 0D 0L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | Lillestrom (Home · 11 matches) | Brann (Away · 11 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 63.6% | 72.7% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 72.7% | 72.7% |
| Clean sheet | 18.2% | 18.2% |
| Avg goals | 3.27 | 3.55 |
Home stats use Lillestrom's home record; away stats use Brann's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.