Kristiansund vs Valerenga — Eliteserien forecast, Saturday, 7 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Kristiansund
30%
Draw
24%
Valerenga
47%
Expected goals
1.42–1.76
Kristiansund · Valerenga
Valerenga win 47% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (10.8%), 1–2 (10.0%), 0–1 (7.1%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 63% of simulations.
Those three cover 28% of outcomes; the other 72% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Valerenga win is 1–2 (10.0%).
Kristiansund score at least twice in 41%; Valerenga in 53%.
Scoreline distribution
Valerenga goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 7.1 | 6.7 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 10.8 | 10.0 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 6.9 | 6.2 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Kristiansund goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 34% | 25% | 41% |
| Market reference | 30% | 24% | 47% |
| Metis Forecast | 30% | 24% | 47% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Kristiansund | 3.22 |
| Draw | 3.96 |
| Valerenga | 2.07 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 02 Nov · 05:06 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Kristiansund
| 15 Mar | H | vs Brann | 3–2 | W |
| 6 Apr | H | vs Bodo/Glimt | 0–3 | L |
| 11 Apr | A | vs Tromso | 0–2 | L |
| 19 Apr | H | vs Fredrikstad | 2–0 | W |
| 26 Apr | A | vs Aalesund | 1–1 | D |
Valerenga
| 15 Mar | H | vs Sandefjord | 1–0 | W |
| 22 Mar | A | vs Rosenborg | 2–0 | W |
| 6 Apr | H | vs Viking | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Apr | A | vs Fredrikstad | 1–1 | D |
| 19 Apr | H | vs Lillestrom | 0–2 | L |
Head to head
| 29 May 26 | ValerengavsKristiansund | 3 – 1 |
Kristiansund: 0W 0D 1L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | Kristiansund (Home · 12 matches) | Valerenga (Away · 12 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 66.7% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 66.7% | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | 25.0% | 16.7% |
| Avg goals | 3.00 | 3.50 |
Home stats use Kristiansund's home record; away stats use Valerenga's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.