Kristiansund vs KFUM Oslo — Eliteserien forecast, Sunday, 25 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Kristiansund
40%
Draw
28%
KFUM Oslo
32%
Expected goals
1.53–1.36
Kristiansund · KFUM Oslo
Kristiansund win 40% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13.0%), 2–1 (8.8%), 1–2 (7.6%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 60% of simulations.
Those three cover 29% of outcomes; the other 71% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Kristiansund score at least twice in 45%; KFUM Oslo in 39%.
Scoreline distribution
KFUM Oslo goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 6.4 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 13.0 | 7.6 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.8 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Kristiansund goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 40% | 27% | 34% |
| Market reference | 40% | 28% | 32% |
| Metis Forecast | 40% | 28% | 32% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Kristiansund | 2.39 |
| Draw | 3.41 |
| KFUM Oslo | 2.97 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Kristiansund
| 15 Mar | H | vs Brann | 3–2 | W |
| 6 Apr | H | vs Bodo/Glimt | 0–3 | L |
| 11 Apr | A | vs Tromso | 0–2 | L |
| 19 Apr | H | vs Fredrikstad | 2–0 | W |
| 26 Apr | A | vs Aalesund | 1–1 | D |
KFUM Oslo
| 15 Mar | H | vs Start | 2–0 | W |
| 22 Mar | A | vs Fredrikstad | 1–3 | L |
| 7 Apr | H | vs Sandefjord | 1–2 | L |
| 12 Apr | A | vs Aalesund | 2–2 | D |
| 19 Apr | A | vs HamKam | 0–4 | L |
Head to head
| 2 Aug 26 | KFUM OslovsKristiansund | 2 – 1 |
Kristiansund: 0W 0D 1L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | Kristiansund (Home · 11 matches) | KFUM Oslo (Away · 11 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 63.6% | 72.7% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 63.6% | 72.7% |
| Clean sheet | 27.3% | 9.1% |
| Avg goals | 2.91 | 3.27 |
Home stats use Kristiansund's home record; away stats use KFUM Oslo's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.