HamKam vs Molde — Eliteserien result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 13 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 30.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Ham-Kam
22%
Draw
22%
Molde
56%
pick · result
Final score
1–5
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Molde win 56.2% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Molde win. Expected goals 1.28–2.15 against 1–5 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (9.5%), 1–2 (9.3%), 0–2 (7.5%). It finished 1–5.
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HamKam
| 14 Mar | H | vs Viking | 2–1 | W |
| 6 Apr | H | vs Brann | 1–5 | L |
| 12 Apr | A | vs Molde | 1–4 | L |
| 19 Apr | H | vs KFUM Oslo | 4–0 | W |
| 26 Apr | H | vs Start | 2–1 | W |
Molde
| 14 Mar | H | vs Rosenborg | 2–0 | W |
| 21 Mar | A | vs Viking | 1–4 | L |
| 6 Apr | H | vs Lillestrom | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Apr | H | vs HamKam | 4–1 | W |
| 19 Apr | A | vs Start | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | HamKam (Home · 12 matches) | Molde (Away · 12 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 58.3% | 83.3% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 66.7% | 75.0% |
| Clean sheet | 25.0% | 8.3% |
| Avg goals | 3.42 | 4.00 |
Home stats use HamKam's home record; away stats use Molde's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.