Fredrikstad vs Rosenborg — Eliteserien forecast, Saturday, 31 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Independent model — no market priceModel updated
Fredrikstad
31%
Draw
26%
Rosenborg
44%
Expected goals
1.36–1.66
Fredrikstad · Rosenborg
Rosenborg win 44% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11.9%), 1–2 (9.2%), 2–1 (7.5%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 61% of simulations.
Those three cover 29% of outcomes; the other 71% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Rosenborg win is 1–2 (9.2%).
Fredrikstad score at least twice in 39%; Rosenborg in 49%.
Scoreline distribution
Rosenborg goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 7.2 | 6.7 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 11.9 | 9.2 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.5 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Fredrikstad goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Fredrikstad | 4.00 |
| Draw | 3.83 |
| Rosenborg | 1.85 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 26 Oct · 04:41 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Fredrikstad
| 15 Mar | A | vs Tromso | 0–4 | L |
| 22 Mar | H | vs KFUM Oslo | 3–1 | W |
| 7 Apr | A | vs Aalesund | 3–2 | W |
| 12 Apr | H | vs Valerenga | 1–1 | D |
| 19 Apr | A | vs Kristiansund | 0–2 | L |
Rosenborg
| 14 Mar | A | vs Molde | 0–2 | L |
| 22 Mar | H | vs Valerenga | 0–2 | L |
| 6 Apr | A | vs Tromso | 0–2 | L |
| 12 Apr | H | vs Sarpsborg 08 | 2–1 | W |
| 18 Apr | A | vs Sandefjord | 0–0 | D |
Head to head
| 27 Jul 26 | RosenborgvsFredrikstad | 4 – 0 |
Fredrikstad: 0W 0D 1L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | Fredrikstad (Home · 11 matches) | Rosenborg (Away · 11 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 72.7% | 27.3% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 45.5% | 54.5% |
| Clean sheet | 18.2% | 36.4% |
| Avg goals | 2.36 | 2.91 |
Home stats use Fredrikstad's home record; away stats use Rosenborg's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.