Fredrikstad vs Brann — Eliteserien forecast, Sunday, 8 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Fredrikstad
36%
Draw
24%
Brann
40%
Expected goals
1.51–1.58
Fredrikstad · Brann
Brann win 40% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11.2%), 1–2 (8.8%), 2–1 (8.2%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 62% of simulations.
Those three cover 28% of outcomes; the other 72% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Fredrikstad score at least twice in 45%; Brann in 47%.
Scoreline distribution
Brann goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 6.5 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 11.2 | 8.8 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.2 | 6.2 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.2 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Fredrikstad goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 36% | 26% | 38% |
| Market reference | 36% | 24% | 40% |
| Metis Forecast | 36% | 24% | 40% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Fredrikstad | 2.66 |
| Draw | 3.86 |
| Brann | 2.43 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 02 Nov · 05:06 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Fredrikstad
| 15 Mar | A | vs Tromso | 0–4 | L |
| 22 Mar | H | vs KFUM Oslo | 3–1 | W |
| 7 Apr | A | vs Aalesund | 3–2 | W |
| 12 Apr | H | vs Valerenga | 1–1 | D |
| 19 Apr | A | vs Kristiansund | 0–2 | L |
Brann
| 15 Mar | A | vs Kristiansund | 2–3 | L |
| 22 Mar | H | vs Tromso | 1–2 | L |
| 6 Apr | A | vs HamKam | 5–1 | W |
| 12 Apr | H | vs Sandefjord | 0–1 | L |
| 18 Apr | A | vs Viking | 2–3 | L |
Head to head
| 2 May 26 | BrannvsFredrikstad | 3 – 1 |
Fredrikstad: 0W 0D 1L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | Fredrikstad (Home · 11 matches) | Brann (Away · 12 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 72.7% | 75.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 45.5% | 75.0% |
| Clean sheet | 18.2% | 16.7% |
| Avg goals | 2.36 | 3.67 |
Home stats use Fredrikstad's home record; away stats use Brann's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.