Brann vs Lillestrom — Eliteserien result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 5 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 8.1 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Brann
55%
top pick
Draw
22%
Lillestrom
22%
result
Final score
1–2
Top pick missed
Metis gave a Lillestrom win 22.4% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Brann win. Expected goals 2.02–1.17 against 1–2 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (10.3%), 2–1 (9.2%), 2–0 (8.3%). It finished 1–2.
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Brann
| 15 Mar | A | vs Kristiansund | 2–3 | L |
| 22 Mar | H | vs Tromso | 1–2 | L |
| 6 Apr | A | vs HamKam | 5–1 | W |
| 12 Apr | H | vs Sandefjord | 0–1 | L |
| 18 Apr | A | vs Viking | 2–3 | L |
Lillestrom
| 15 Mar | A | vs Aalesund | 3–1 | W |
| 6 Apr | A | vs Molde | 1–0 | W |
| 11 Apr | H | vs Start | 3–1 | W |
| 15 Apr | A | vs Tromso | 0–0 | D |
| 19 Apr | A | vs Valerenga | 2–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Brann (Home · 11 matches) | Lillestrom (Away · 11 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 81.8% | 27.3% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 90.9% | 36.4% |
| Clean sheet | 9.1% | 36.4% |
| Avg goals | 3.27 | 2.27 |
Home stats use Brann's home record; away stats use Lillestrom's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.