Bodo/Glimt vs Valerenga — Eliteserien forecast, Saturday, 24 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Bodo/Glimt
85%
Draw
9%
Valerenga
6%
Expected goals
3.54–0.86
Bodo/Glimt · Valerenga
Bodo/Glimt win 85% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 3–0 (9.1%), 4–0 (8.1%), 3–1 (7.7%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 56% of simulations.
Those three cover 25% of outcomes; the other 75% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Bodo/Glimt score at least twice in 87%; Valerenga in 22%.
Scoreline distribution
Valerenga goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 9.1 | 7.7 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 8.1 | 6.9 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 12.2 | 10.3 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Rows: Bodo/Glimt goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 86% | 9% | 5% |
| Market reference | 85% | 9% | 6% |
| Metis Forecast | 85% | 9% | 6% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Bodo/Glimt | 1.13 |
| Draw | 9.72 |
| Valerenga | 13.54 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Bodo/Glimt
| 6 Apr | A | vs Kristiansund | 3–0 | W |
| 11 Apr | A | vs Viking | 0–5 | L |
| 15 Apr | A | vs Sarpsborg 08 | 1–1 | D |
| 18 Apr | H | vs Aalesund | 3–0 | W |
| 26 Apr | A | vs Lillestrom | 2–0 | W |
Valerenga
| 15 Mar | H | vs Sandefjord | 1–0 | W |
| 22 Mar | A | vs Rosenborg | 2–0 | W |
| 6 Apr | H | vs Viking | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Apr | A | vs Fredrikstad | 1–1 | D |
| 19 Apr | H | vs Lillestrom | 0–2 | L |
Head to head
| 8 Aug 26 | ValerengavsBodo/Glimt | 1 – 2 |
Bodo/Glimt: 1W 0D 0L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | Bodo/Glimt (Home · 11 matches) | Valerenga (Away · 11 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 36.4% | 54.5% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 81.8% | 54.5% |
| Clean sheet | 54.5% | 9.1% |
| Avg goals | 3.73 | 3.73 |
Home stats use Bodo/Glimt's home record; away stats use Valerenga's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.