Aalesund vs Start — Eliteserien result and pre-match forecast, Friday, 4 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 17.4 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Aalesund
44%
pick · result
Draw
23%
Start
33%
Final score
2–0
Top pick landed
Metis gave an Aalesund win 44.1% before kick-off, and its most likely result was an Aalesund win. Expected goals 1.89–1.65 against 2–0 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (9.8%), 2–1 (9.1%), 1–2 (7.0%). It finished 2–0.
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Recent form
Aalesund
| 15 Mar | H | vs Lillestrom | 1–3 | L |
| 21 Mar | A | vs Start | 1–1 | D |
| 7 Apr | H | vs Fredrikstad | 2–3 | L |
| 12 Apr | H | vs KFUM Oslo | 2–2 | D |
| 18 Apr | A | vs Bodo/Glimt | 0–3 | L |
Start
| 15 Mar | A | vs KFUM Oslo | 0–2 | L |
| 21 Mar | H | vs Aalesund | 1–1 | D |
| 6 Apr | A | vs Sarpsborg 08 | 1–1 | D |
| 11 Apr | A | vs Lillestrom | 1–3 | L |
| 19 Apr | H | vs Molde | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Aalesund (Home · 13 matches) | Start (Away · 12 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 92.3% | 66.7% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 76.9% | 75.0% |
| Clean sheet | 7.7% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 4.69 | 3.83 |
Home stats use Aalesund's home record; away stats use Start's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.