Sporting Kansas City vs Los Angeles FC — MLS result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 13 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 16.1 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Sporting Kansas City
22%
result
Draw
22%
Los Angeles FC
57%
top pick
Final score
3–1
Top pick missed
Metis gave a Sporting Kansas City win 21.7% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Los Angeles FC win. Expected goals 1.15–2.02 against 3–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (10.0%), 1–2 (9.6%), 0–2 (8.6%). It finished 3–1.
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Sporting Kansas City
| 22 Feb | A | vs San Jose Earthquakes | 0–3 | L |
| 1 Mar | H | vs Columbus Crew | 2–2 | D |
| 8 Mar | H | vs San Diego FC | 0–1 | L |
| 15 Mar | A | vs Los Angeles Galaxy | 2–1 | W |
| 22 Mar | H | vs Colorado Rapids | 1–4 | L |
Los Angeles FC
| 22 Feb | H | vs Inter Miami | 3–0 | W |
| 1 Mar | A | vs Houston Dynamo | 2–0 | W |
| 8 Mar | H | vs FC Dallas | 1–0 | W |
| 15 Mar | H | vs St. Louis City | 2–0 | W |
| 22 Mar | A | vs Austin FC | 0–0 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Sporting Kansas City (Home · 17 matches) | Los Angeles FC (Away · 16 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 82.4% | 56.2% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 70.6% | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 31.2% |
| Avg goals | 3.47 | 2.44 |
Home stats use Sporting Kansas City's home record; away stats use Los Angeles FC's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.