Seattle Sounders vs Los Angeles FC — MLS forecast, Sunday, 8 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Seattle Sounders
46%
Draw
25%
Los Angeles FC
29%
Expected goals
1.65–1.32
Seattle Sounders · Los Angeles FC
Seattle Sounders win 46% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11.8%), 2–1 (9.9%), 1–0 (8.1%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 60% of simulations.
Those three cover 30% of outcomes; the other 70% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Seattle Sounders win is 2–1 (9.9%).
Seattle Sounders score at least twice in 50%; Los Angeles FC in 38%.
Scoreline distribution
Los Angeles FC goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 5.6 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.8 | 7.0 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.9 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.2 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Seattle Sounders goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 41% | 26% | 33% |
| Market reference | 46% | 25% | 29% |
| Metis Forecast | 46% | 25% | 29% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Seattle Sounders | 2.05 |
| Draw | 3.74 |
| Los Angeles FC | 3.40 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 02 Nov · 05:06 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Seattle Sounders
| 23 Feb | H | vs Colorado Rapids | 2–0 | W |
| 1 Mar | A | vs Real Salt Lake | 1–2 | L |
| 8 Mar | A | vs St. Louis City | 1–0 | W |
| 15 Mar | A | vs San Jose Earthquakes | 1–0 | W |
| 22 Mar | A | vs Minnesota United | 0–0 | D |
Los Angeles FC
| 22 Feb | H | vs Inter Miami | 3–0 | W |
| 1 Mar | A | vs Houston Dynamo | 2–0 | W |
| 8 Mar | H | vs FC Dallas | 1–0 | W |
| 15 Mar | H | vs St. Louis City | 2–0 | W |
| 22 Mar | A | vs Austin FC | 0–0 | D |
Head to head
| 25 May 26 | Los Angeles FCvsSeattle Sounders | 1 – 0 |
Seattle Sounders: 0W 0D 1L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | Seattle Sounders (Home · 16 matches) | Los Angeles FC (Away · 16 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 62.5% | 56.2% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | 18.8% | 31.2% |
| Avg goals | 2.88 | 2.44 |
Home stats use Seattle Sounders's home record; away stats use Los Angeles FC's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.