San Jose Earthquakes vs Los Angeles FC — MLS result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 20 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 19.9 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
San Jose Earthquakes
32%
Draw
24%
result
Los Angeles FC
44%
top pick
Final score
2–2
Top pick missed
Metis gave the draw 24.0% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Los Angeles FC win. Expected goals 1.51–1.75 against 2–2 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (10.7%), 1–2 (9.6%), 2–1 (7.2%). It finished 2–2.
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San Jose Earthquakes
| 22 Feb | H | vs Sporting Kansas City | 3–0 | W |
| 1 Mar | H | vs Atlanta Utd | 2–0 | W |
| 8 Mar | A | vs Philadelphia Union | 1–0 | W |
| 15 Mar | H | vs Seattle Sounders | 0–1 | L |
| 22 Mar | A | vs Vancouver Whitecaps | 1–0 | W |
Los Angeles FC
| 22 Feb | H | vs Inter Miami | 3–0 | W |
| 1 Mar | A | vs Houston Dynamo | 2–0 | W |
| 8 Mar | H | vs FC Dallas | 1–0 | W |
| 15 Mar | H | vs St. Louis City | 2–0 | W |
| 22 Mar | A | vs Austin FC | 0–0 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | San Jose Earthquakes (Home · 17 matches) | Los Angeles FC (Away · 16 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 64.7% | 56.2% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 64.7% | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | 23.5% | 31.2% |
| Avg goals | 3.29 | 2.44 |
Home stats use San Jose Earthquakes's home record; away stats use Los Angeles FC's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.