Los Angeles FC vs Vancouver Whitecaps — MLS forecast, Sunday, 11 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Los Angeles FC
33%
Draw
26%
Vancouver Whitecaps
41%
Expected goals
1.41–1.59
Los Angeles FC · Vancouver Whitecaps
Vancouver Whitecaps win 41% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.2%), 1–2 (8.7%), 2–1 (8.0%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 61% of simulations.
Those three cover 29% of outcomes; the other 71% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Los Angeles FC score at least twice in 41%; Vancouver Whitecaps in 47%.
Scoreline distribution
Vancouver Whitecaps goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 6.9 | 6.2 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 12.1 | 8.7 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 8.0 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Los Angeles FC goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 32% | 26% | 42% |
| Market reference | 33% | 26% | 41% |
| Metis Forecast | 33% | 26% | 41% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Los Angeles FC | 2.63 |
| Draw | 3.71 |
| Vancouver Whitecaps | 2.50 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 07 Oct · 04:07 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Los Angeles FC
| 22 Feb | H | vs Inter Miami | 3–0 | W |
| 1 Mar | A | vs Houston Dynamo | 2–0 | W |
| 8 Mar | H | vs FC Dallas | 1–0 | W |
| 15 Mar | H | vs St. Louis City | 2–0 | W |
| 22 Mar | A | vs Austin FC | 0–0 | D |
Vancouver Whitecaps
| 22 Feb | H | vs Real Salt Lake | 1–0 | W |
| 1 Mar | H | vs Toronto FC | 3–0 | W |
| 8 Mar | A | vs Portland Timbers | 4–1 | W |
| 15 Mar | H | vs Minnesota United | 6–0 | W |
| 22 Mar | H | vs San Jose Earthquakes | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
| 2 Aug 26 | Vancouver WhitecapsvsLos Angeles FC | 1 – 1 |
Los Angeles FC: 0W 1D 0L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | Los Angeles FC (Home · 13 matches) | Vancouver Whitecaps (Away · 11 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 30.8% | 54.5% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 46.2% | 54.5% |
| Clean sheet | 61.5% | 36.4% |
| Avg goals | 2.77 | 3.27 |
Home stats use Los Angeles FC's home record; away stats use Vancouver Whitecaps's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.