Los Angeles FC vs New York Red Bulls — MLS result and pre-match forecast, Thursday, 10 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 23.2 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Los Angeles FC
69%
pick · result
Draw
17%
New York Red Bulls
14%
Final score
2–0
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Los Angeles FC win 69.0% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Los Angeles FC win. Expected goals 2.28–0.97 against 2–0 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 2–1 (10.9%), 2–0 (10.6%), 1–0 (9.0%). It finished 2–0 — one of them.
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Los Angeles FC
| 22 Feb | H | vs Inter Miami | 3–0 | W |
| 1 Mar | A | vs Houston Dynamo | 2–0 | W |
| 8 Mar | H | vs FC Dallas | 1–0 | W |
| 15 Mar | H | vs St. Louis City | 2–0 | W |
| 22 Mar | A | vs Austin FC | 0–0 | D |
New York Red Bulls
| 22 Feb | A | vs Orlando City | 2–1 | W |
| 28 Feb | H | vs New England Revolution | 1–0 | W |
| 8 Mar | H | vs CF Montreal | 0–3 | L |
| 14 Mar | A | vs Toronto FC | 1–1 | D |
| 21 Mar | A | vs Charlotte | 1–6 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Los Angeles FC (Home · 17 matches) | New York Red Bulls (Away · 17 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 47.1% | 70.6% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 52.9% | 64.7% |
| Clean sheet | 47.1% | 17.6% |
| Avg goals | 2.94 | 3.18 |
Home stats use Los Angeles FC's home record; away stats use New York Red Bulls's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.