Los Angeles FC vs Los Angeles Galaxy — MLS forecast, Monday, 26 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Los Angeles FC
63%
Draw
20%
Los Angeles Galaxy
18%
Expected goals
2.21–1.12
Los Angeles FC · Los Angeles Galaxy
Los Angeles FC win 63% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 2–1 (10.2%), 2–0 (9.0%), 1–1 (9.0%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 60% of simulations.
Those three cover 28% of outcomes; the other 72% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Los Angeles FC score at least twice in 65%; Los Angeles Galaxy in 31%.
Scoreline distribution
Los Angeles Galaxy goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 9.0 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 10.2 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 7.4 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 2.3 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
Rows: Los Angeles FC goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 60% | 22% | 18% |
| Market reference | 63% | 20% | 18% |
| Metis Forecast | 63% | 20% | 18% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Los Angeles FC | 1.54 |
| Draw | 4.67 |
| Los Angeles Galaxy | 5.15 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Los Angeles FC
| 22 Feb | H | vs Inter Miami | 3–0 | W |
| 1 Mar | A | vs Houston Dynamo | 2–0 | W |
| 8 Mar | H | vs FC Dallas | 1–0 | W |
| 15 Mar | H | vs St. Louis City | 2–0 | W |
| 22 Mar | A | vs Austin FC | 0–0 | D |
Los Angeles Galaxy
| 23 Feb | H | vs New York City | 1–1 | D |
| 1 Mar | H | vs Charlotte | 3–0 | W |
| 8 Mar | A | vs Colorado Rapids | 1–4 | L |
| 15 Mar | H | vs Sporting Kansas City | 1–2 | L |
| 22 Mar | A | vs Portland Timbers | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
| 18 Jul 26 | Los Angeles GalaxyvsLos Angeles FC | 0 – 3 |
Los Angeles FC: 1W 0D 0L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | Los Angeles FC (Home · 15 matches) | Los Angeles Galaxy (Away · 15 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 40.0% | 80.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 46.7% | 73.3% |
| Clean sheet | 53.3% | 6.7% |
| Avg goals | 2.80 | 3.53 |
Home stats use Los Angeles FC's home record; away stats use Los Angeles Galaxy's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.