FC Dallas vs Los Angeles FC — MLS forecast, Sunday, 27 September 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
FC Dallas
40%
Draw
25%
Los Angeles FC
35%
Expected goals
1.56–1.41
FC Dallas · Los Angeles FC
FC Dallas win 40% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11.7%), 2–1 (8.6%), 1–2 (8.5%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 60% of simulations.
Those three cover 29% of outcomes; the other 71% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
FC Dallas score at least twice in 46%; Los Angeles FC in 41%.
Scoreline distribution
Los Angeles FC goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 6.7 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.7 | 8.4 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.5 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: FC Dallas goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 42% | 26% | 32% |
| Market reference | 40% | 25% | 35% |
| Metis Forecast | 40% | 25% | 35% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle | Bet365 | William Hill | Betano | Betfair SB | BetVictor | MarathonBet | SBO | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Dallas | 2.39 | 2.35 | 2.38 | 2.50 | 2.45 | 2.30 | 2.38 | 2.26 | 2.50 Betano |
| Draw | 3.76 | 3.70 | 3.40 | 3.70 | 3.80 | 3.60 | 3.58 | 3.28 | 3.80 Betfair SB |
| Los Angeles FC | 2.74 | 2.70 | 2.62 | 2.65 | 2.55 | 2.63 | 2.67 | 2.48 | 2.74 Pinnacle |
Reference prices, published with the 23 Sep · 03:58 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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FC Dallas
| 22 Feb | H | vs Toronto FC | 3–2 | W |
| 1 Mar | H | vs Nashville SC | 0–0 | D |
| 8 Mar | A | vs Los Angeles FC | 0–1 | L |
| 15 Mar | H | vs San Diego FC | 3–3 | D |
| 22 Mar | H | vs Houston Dynamo | 4–3 | W |
Los Angeles FC
| 22 Feb | H | vs Inter Miami | 3–0 | W |
| 1 Mar | A | vs Houston Dynamo | 2–0 | W |
| 8 Mar | H | vs FC Dallas | 1–0 | W |
| 15 Mar | H | vs St. Louis City | 2–0 | W |
| 22 Mar | A | vs Austin FC | 0–0 | D |
Head to head
| 8 Mar 26 | Los Angeles FCvsFC Dallas | 1 – 0 |
FC Dallas: 0W 0D 1L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | FC Dallas (Home · 12 matches) | Los Angeles FC (Away · 14 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 75.0% | 57.1% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 66.7% | 57.1% |
| Clean sheet | 16.7% | 35.7% |
| Avg goals | 3.67 | 2.57 |
Home stats use FC Dallas's home record; away stats use Los Angeles FC's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.