Sochaux vs Nantes — Ligue 2 result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 12 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 3.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Sochaux
27%
result
Draw
27%
Nantes
46%
top pick
Final score
1–0
Top pick missed
Metis gave a Sochaux win 27.3% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Nantes win. Expected goals 1.06–1.45 against 1–0 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (12.6%), 0–1 (11.3%), 1–2 (9.3%). It finished 1–0.
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Sochaux
| 8 Aug | H | vs St Etienne | 0–3 | L |
| 14 Aug | A | vs Red Star | 0–0 | D |
| 21 Aug | H | vs Guingamp | 1–0 | W |
| 28 Aug | A | vs Clermont | 0–0 | D |
| 4 Sept | A | vs Pau FC | 1–1 | D |
Nantes
| 8 Aug | H | vs Red Star | 0–1 | L |
| 14 Aug | A | vs Laval | 1–2 | L |
| 22 Aug | H | vs Rodez | 2–5 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Guingamp | 3–3 | D |
| 7 Sept | H | vs Nancy | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Sochaux (Home · 5 matches) | Nantes (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 40.0% | 60.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 40.0% | 60.0% |
| Clean sheet | 40.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.20 | 2.80 |
Home stats use Sochaux's home record; away stats use Nantes's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.