Sabadell vs Tenerife — La Liga 2 forecast, Sunday, 25 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Sabadell
50%
Draw
29%
Tenerife
20%
Expected goals
1.42–0.81
Sabadell · Tenerife
Sabadell win 50% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–0 (14.2%), 1–1 (13.4%), 0–0 (11.8%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 43% of simulations.
Those three cover 39% of outcomes; the other 61% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Sabadell score at least twice in 42%; Tenerife in 19%.
Scoreline distribution
Tenerife goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 7.7 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 14.2 | 13.4 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 8.7 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Sabadell goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 51% | 29% | 20% |
| Market reference | 50% | 29% | 20% |
| Metis Forecast | 50% | 29% | 20% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Sabadell | 1.91 |
| Draw | 3.22 |
| Tenerife | 4.56 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Sabadell
| 17 Aug | A | vs Sp Gijon | 0–0 | D |
| 23 Aug | A | vs Castellon | 0–0 | D |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Almeria | 1–0 | W |
| 7 Sept | H | vs Cordoba | 3–2 | W |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Mallorca | 0–2 | L |
Tenerife
| 16 Aug | A | vs Eibar | 3–1 | W |
| 23 Aug | H | vs Almeria | 1–0 | W |
| 28 Aug | H | vs Sp Gijon | 0–1 | L |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Sociedad B | 1–1 | D |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Leganes | 2–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Sabadell (Home · 4 matches) | Tenerife (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 80.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 60.0% |
| Clean sheet | 50.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.50 | 3.60 |
Home stats use Sabadell's home record; away stats use Tenerife's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.