Girona vs Mallorca — La Liga 2 forecast, Sunday, 4 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Girona
44%
Draw
27%
Mallorca
29%
Expected goals
1.35–1.04
Girona · Mallorca
Girona win 44% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.7%), 1–0 (12.0%), 0–0 (9.5%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 48% of simulations.
Those three cover 34% of outcomes; the other 66% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Girona win is 1–0 (12.0%).
Girona score at least twice in 39%; Mallorca in 28%.
Scoreline distribution
Mallorca goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 8.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 12.7 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.0 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Girona goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 42% | 30% | 29% |
| Market reference | 44% | 27% | 29% |
| Metis Forecast | 44% | 27% | 29% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Girona | 2.18 |
| Draw | 3.50 |
| Mallorca | 3.27 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 28 Sep · 04:02 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
What changed overnight?
vs previous runxG 1.42–1.05 → 1.35–1.04
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Recent form
Girona
| 16 Aug | H | vs Leganes | 1–1 | D |
| 21 Aug | A | vs Cordoba | 1–2 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Las Palmas | 5–2 | W |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Sp Gijon | 2–0 | W |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Castellon | 1–2 | L |
Mallorca
| 15 Aug | H | vs Valladolid | 2–0 | W |
| 24 Aug | A | vs Granada | 0–2 | L |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Ceuta | 3–0 | W |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Eldense | 0–0 | D |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Sabadell | 2–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Girona (Home · 4 matches) | Mallorca (Away · 3 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 75.0% | 0.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 0.0% |
| Clean sheet | 25.0% | 66.7% |
| Avg goals | 3.50 | 1.00 |
Home stats use Girona's home record; away stats use Mallorca's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.