Girona vs Mallorca — La Liga 2 result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 4 October 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 10.9 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Girona
38%
top pick
Draw
29%
result
Mallorca
33%
Final score
0–0
Top pick missed
Metis gave the draw 29.2% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Girona win. Expected goals 1.25–1.11 against 0–0 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (13.8%), 1–0 (10.5%), 0–0 (10.3%). It finished 0–0 — one of them.
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Girona
| 16 Aug | H | vs Leganes | 1–1 | D |
| 21 Aug | A | vs Cordoba | 1–2 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Las Palmas | 5–2 | W |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Sp Gijon | 2–0 | W |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Castellon | 1–2 | L |
Mallorca
| 15 Aug | H | vs Valladolid | 2–0 | W |
| 24 Aug | A | vs Granada | 0–2 | L |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Ceuta | 3–0 | W |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Eldense | 0–0 | D |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Sabadell | 2–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Girona (Home · 8 matches) | Mallorca (Away · 6 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 33.3% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 37.5% | 0.0% |
| Clean sheet | 37.5% | 50.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.88 | 1.17 |
Home stats use Girona's home record; away stats use Mallorca's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.