Girona vs Celta B — La Liga 2 forecast, Saturday, 24 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Girona
70%
Draw
19%
Celta B
11%
Expected goals
1.88–0.77
Girona · Celta B
Girona win 70% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–0 (16.2%), 2–0 (13.5%), 2–1 (13.4%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 48% of simulations.
Those three cover 43% of outcomes; the other 57% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Girona score at least twice in 59%; Celta B in 17%.
Scoreline distribution
Celta B goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 16.2 | 9.1 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 13.4 | 13.4 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 6.9 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Girona goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 49% | 28% | 24% |
| Market reference | 70% | 19% | 11% |
| Metis Forecast | 70% | 19% | 11% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Girona
| 16 Aug | H | vs Leganes | 1–1 | D |
| 21 Aug | A | vs Cordoba | 1–2 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Las Palmas | 5–2 | W |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Sp Gijon | 2–0 | W |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Castellon | 1–2 | L |
Celta B
| 15 Aug | A | vs Cadiz | 0–0 | D |
| 24 Aug | H | vs Andorra | 4–2 | W |
| 31 Aug | H | vs Castellon | 1–2 | L |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Ceuta | 2–0 | W |
| 14 Sept | H | vs Eibar | 0–4 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Girona (Home · 6 matches) | Celta B (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 25.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 33.3% | 25.0% |
| Clean sheet | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.67 | 2.25 |
Home stats use Girona's home record; away stats use Celta B's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.