Eldense vs Sabadell — La Liga 2 forecast, Sunday, 15 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Eldense
37%
Draw
30%
Sabadell
33%
Expected goals
1.21–1.14
Eldense · Sabadell
Eldense win 37% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (14.0%), 1–0 (10.6%), 0–0 (10.5%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 49% of simulations.
Those three cover 35% of outcomes; the other 65% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Eldense score at least twice in 34%; Sabadell in 32%.
Scoreline distribution
Sabadell goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 9.9 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 14.0 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Eldense goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 36% | 30% | 34% |
| Market reference | 37% | 30% | 33% |
| Metis Forecast | 37% | 30% | 33% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Eldense | 2.60 |
| Draw | 3.21 |
| Sabadell | 2.86 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 10 Nov · 04:35 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Recent form
Eldense
| 17 Aug | A | vs Almeria | 0–3 | L |
| 22 Aug | H | vs Cadiz | 2–2 | D |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Leganes | 0–1 | L |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Mallorca | 0–0 | D |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Sp Gijon | 1–0 | W |
Sabadell
| 17 Aug | A | vs Sp Gijon | 0–0 | D |
| 23 Aug | A | vs Castellon | 0–0 | D |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Almeria | 1–0 | W |
| 7 Sept | H | vs Cordoba | 3–2 | W |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Mallorca | 0–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Eldense (Home · 6 matches) | Sabadell (Away · 7 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 66.7% | 42.9% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 66.7% | 28.6% |
| Clean sheet | 16.7% | 28.6% |
| Avg goals | 2.83 | 1.57 |
Home stats use Eldense's home record; away stats use Sabadell's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.