Eldense vs Oviedo — La Liga 2 forecast, Friday, 2 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Eldense
36%
Draw
30%
Oviedo
34%
Expected goals
1.11–1.12
Eldense · Oviedo
Eldense win 36% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (14.0%), 1–0 (11.8%), 0–0 (11.5%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 46% of simulations.
Those three cover 37% of outcomes; the other 63% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Eldense score at least twice in 31%; Oviedo in 31%.
Scoreline distribution
Oviedo goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 10.4 | 6.8 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 14.0 | 7.0 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.1 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Eldense goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 30% | 31% | 39% |
| Market reference | 36% | 30% | 34% |
| Metis Forecast | 36% | 30% | 34% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle | William Hill | 1xBet | Betano | Betfair SB | BetVictor | MarathonBet | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eldense | 2.66 | 2.50 | 2.66 | 2.67 | 2.50 | 2.55 | 2.58 | 2.67 Betano |
| Draw | 3.16 | 3.00 | 3.24 | 3.10 | 3.10 | 3.13 | 3.14 | 3.24 1xBet |
| Oviedo | 2.80 | 2.62 | 2.80 | 2.80 | 2.60 | 2.63 | 2.71 | 2.80 Pinnacle |
Reference prices, published with the 28 Sep · 04:02 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
What changed overnight?
vs previous runxG 1.04–1.17 → 1.11–1.12
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Eldense
| 17 Aug | A | vs Almeria | 0–3 | L |
| 22 Aug | H | vs Cadiz | 2–2 | D |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Leganes | 0–1 | L |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Mallorca | 0–0 | D |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Sp Gijon | 1–0 | W |
Oviedo
| 15 Aug | H | vs Granada | 0–0 | D |
| 22 Aug | H | vs Leganes | 0–1 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Albacete | 1–0 | W |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Burgos | 0–0 | D |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Valladolid | 3–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Eldense (Home · 3 matches) | Oviedo (Away · 3 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 66.7% | 33.3% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 66.7% | 66.7% |
| Clean sheet | 33.3% | 66.7% |
| Avg goals | 2.33 | 2.67 |
Home stats use Eldense's home record; away stats use Oviedo's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.