Eldense vs Oviedo — La Liga 2 result and pre-match forecast, Friday, 2 October 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 10.4 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Eldense
38%
pick · result
Draw
32%
Oviedo
31%
Final score
4–1
Top pick landed
Metis gave an Eldense win 37.6% before kick-off, and its most likely result was an Eldense win. Expected goals 1.15–1.07 against 4–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (14.8%), 1–0 (12.3%), 0–0 (12.0%). It finished 4–1.
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Eldense
| 17 Aug | A | vs Almeria | 0–3 | L |
| 22 Aug | H | vs Cadiz | 2–2 | D |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Leganes | 0–1 | L |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Mallorca | 0–0 | D |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Sp Gijon | 1–0 | W |
Oviedo
| 15 Aug | H | vs Granada | 0–0 | D |
| 22 Aug | H | vs Leganes | 0–1 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Albacete | 1–0 | W |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Burgos | 0–0 | D |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Valladolid | 3–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Eldense (Home · 6 matches) | Oviedo (Away · 7 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 66.7% | 71.4% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 66.7% | 85.7% |
| Clean sheet | 16.7% | 28.6% |
| Avg goals | 2.83 | 3.29 |
Home stats use Eldense's home record; away stats use Oviedo's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.