Celta B vs Sabadell — La Liga 2 result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 26 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 8.2 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Celta B
27%
Draw
29%
result
Sabadell
44%
top pick
Final score
1–1
Top pick missed
Metis gave the draw 28.7% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Sabadell win. Expected goals 1.10–1.39 against 1–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (13.7%), 0–1 (11.7%), 1–2 (10.0%). It finished 1–1 — one of them.
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Celta B
| 15 Aug | A | vs Cadiz | 0–0 | D |
| 24 Aug | H | vs Andorra | 4–2 | W |
| 31 Aug | H | vs Castellon | 1–2 | L |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Ceuta | 2–0 | W |
| 14 Sept | H | vs Eibar | 0–4 | L |
Sabadell
| 17 Aug | A | vs Sp Gijon | 0–0 | D |
| 23 Aug | A | vs Castellon | 0–0 | D |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Almeria | 1–0 | W |
| 7 Sept | H | vs Cordoba | 3–2 | W |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Mallorca | 0–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Celta B (Home · 7 matches) | Sabadell (Away · 7 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 85.7% | 42.9% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 71.4% | 28.6% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 28.6% |
| Avg goals | 3.71 | 1.57 |
Home stats use Celta B's home record; away stats use Sabadell's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.