Villarreal head into this one in strong form, having won three of their last five at home while averaging 2.4 goals scored per game on their own turf this season. Their defensive record is equally impressive, keeping clean sheets in nearly a third of home matches and conceding under a goal per game. Against a Sevilla side sitting 18th and winless in four of their last five away from home, the hosts look well placed to control proceedings.

Sevilla's away record is deeply concerning, conceding 1.9 goals per game on the road while keeping clean sheets in just 18% of away fixtures. Their attacking output of 1.1 goals per trip offers little comfort. The lone H2H meeting this season already went Villarreal's way.

With Villarreal's home over 2.5 rate sitting at 71% against a league average of 51%, goals look likely here, and the visitors are difficult to trust. This one looks more comfortable for the hosts than a typical mid-table clash would suggest.