Villarreal vs La Coruna — La Liga result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 5 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 15.9 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Villarreal
64%
top pick
Draw
21%
La Coruna
16%
result
Final score
2–3
Top pick missed
Metis gave a La Coruna win 15.6% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Villarreal win. Expected goals 1.91–0.93 against 2–3 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–0 (12.3%), 2–1 (12.1%), 2–0 (11.3%). It finished 2–3.
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Recent form
Villarreal
| 16 Aug | A | vs Santander | 2–2 | D |
| 23 Aug | A | vs Atletico Madrid | 2–2 | D |
| 28 Aug | A | vs Alaves | 0–1 | L |
| 5 Sept | H | vs La Coruna | 2–3 | L |
| 14 Sept | H | vs Real Betis | 1–2 | L |
La Coruna
| 17 Aug | H | vs Elche | 1–1 | D |
| 24 Aug | A | vs Malaga | 1–1 | D |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Valencia | 3–1 | W |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Villarreal | 3–2 | W |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Getafe | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Villarreal (Home · 5 matches) | La Coruna (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 60.0% | 80.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 60.0% | 40.0% |
| Clean sheet | 20.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.60 | 3.00 |
Home stats use Villarreal's home record; away stats use La Coruna's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.