Villarreal vs Espanyol — La Liga forecast, Friday, 30 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Villarreal
62%
Draw
21%
Espanyol
17%
Expected goals
2.00–0.98
Villarreal · Espanyol
Villarreal win 62% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 2–1 (10.5%), 2–0 (10.4%), 1–1 (10.2%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 55% of simulations.
Those three cover 31% of outcomes; the other 69% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Villarreal score at least twice in 60%; Espanyol in 26%.
Scoreline distribution
Espanyol goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 10.2 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 10.5 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.9 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Villarreal goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 63% | 23% | 14% |
| Market reference | 62% | 21% | 17% |
| Metis Forecast | 62% | 21% | 17% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Villarreal | 1.56 |
| Draw | 4.31 |
| Espanyol | 5.40 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Villarreal
| 16 Aug | A | vs Santander | 2–2 | D |
| 23 Aug | A | vs Atletico Madrid | 2–2 | D |
| 28 Aug | A | vs Alaves | 0–1 | L |
| 5 Sept | H | vs La Coruna | 2–3 | L |
| 14 Sept | H | vs Real Betis | 1–2 | L |
Espanyol
| 16 Aug | H | vs Levante | 3–0 | W |
| 22 Aug | H | vs Real Madrid | 1–2 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Real Sociedad | 1–2 | L |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Sevilla | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Osasuna | 2–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Villarreal (Home · 4 matches) | Espanyol (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 75.0% | 75.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 75.0% | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.00 | 2.50 |
Home stats use Villarreal's home record; away stats use Espanyol's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.