Villarreal head into this top-four clash in decent shape, sitting third and backing it up with strong home numbers. Their home BTTS rate of 61% and an eye-catching Over 2.5 figure of 72% both sit well above the La Liga averages, driven largely by an average of 2.4 goals scored per home game. They are productive and entertaining on their own patch, though they have conceded in nearly three quarters of those fixtures.

Atletico arrive as the slightly more defensive proposition away from home, keeping clean sheets in a third of their road trips and averaging just 1.2 goals scored per away game. Their Over 2.5 rate of 44% is notably below the league average, pointing to a more contained, counter-oriented approach on the road.

The limited H2H data favors Atletico, and the underlying numbers suggest their defensive discipline could suppress Villarreal's usual output. This looks tighter and lower-scoring than Villarreal's home record might lead you to expect.