Valencia vs Real Sociedad — La Liga forecast, Sunday, 20 September 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Valencia
35%
Draw
28%
Real Sociedad
37%
Expected goals
1.18–1.26
Valencia · Real Sociedad
Real Sociedad win 37% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13.4%), 1–0 (10.0%), 0–1 (9.7%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 50% of simulations.
Those three cover 33% of outcomes; the other 67% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Valencia score at least twice in 33%; Real Sociedad in 36%.
Scoreline distribution
Real Sociedad goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 9.7 | 7.0 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 13.4 | 7.8 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.2 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Valencia goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 30% | 29% | 40% |
| Market reference | 35% | 28% | 37% |
| Metis Forecast | 35% | 28% | 37% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle | Bet365 | William Hill | 1xBet | Betano | Betfair SB | BetVictor | MarathonBet | SBO | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia | 2.79 | 2.70 | 2.62 | 2.84 | 2.72 | 2.80 | 2.70 | 2.77 | 2.52 | 2.84 1xBet |
| Draw | 3.42 | 3.40 | 3.25 | 3.49 | 3.35 | 3.30 | 3.40 | 3.40 | 3.04 | 3.49 1xBet |
| Real Sociedad | 2.62 | 2.60 | 2.50 | 2.65 | 2.60 | 2.60 | 2.55 | 2.58 | 2.47 | 2.65 1xBet |
Reference prices, published with the 23 Sep · 03:58 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Recent form
Valencia
| 22 Aug | H | vs Celta Vigo | 0–0 | D |
| 25 Aug | H | vs Real Betis | 0–1 | L |
| 30 Aug | A | vs La Coruna | 1–3 | L |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Barcelona | 0–5 | L |
| 11 Sept | A | vs Sevilla | 0–1 | L |
Real Sociedad
| 21 Aug | A | vs Real Betis | 0–1 | L |
| 26 Aug | A | vs Real Madrid | 1–4 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Espanyol | 2–1 | W |
| 3 Sept | H | vs Celta Vigo | 0–0 | D |
| 7 Sept | A | vs Elche | 3–2 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Valencia (Home · 4 matches) | Real Sociedad (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 25.0% | 75.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 75.0% |
| Clean sheet | 25.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.75 | 4.00 |
Home stats use Valencia's home record; away stats use Real Sociedad's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.