Valencia vs Real Sociedad — La Liga result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 20 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 10.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Valencia
34%
Draw
29%
Real Sociedad
37%
pick · result
Final score
2–3
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Real Sociedad win 37.1% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Real Sociedad win. Expected goals 1.18–1.27 against 2–3 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (13.6%), 1–0 (9.7%), 0–1 (9.6%). It finished 2–3.
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Valencia
| 22 Aug | H | vs Celta Vigo | 0–0 | D |
| 25 Aug | H | vs Real Betis | 0–1 | L |
| 30 Aug | A | vs La Coruna | 1–3 | L |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Barcelona | 0–5 | L |
| 11 Sept | A | vs Sevilla | 0–1 | L |
Real Sociedad
| 21 Aug | A | vs Real Betis | 0–1 | L |
| 26 Aug | A | vs Real Madrid | 1–4 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Espanyol | 2–1 | W |
| 3 Sept | H | vs Celta Vigo | 0–0 | D |
| 7 Sept | A | vs Elche | 3–2 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Valencia (Home · 6 matches) | Real Sociedad (Away · 6 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 33.3% | 83.3% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 83.3% |
| Clean sheet | 33.3% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.33 | 4.33 |
Home stats use Valencia's home record; away stats use Real Sociedad's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.