🇪🇸 La Liga·Saturday, 29 August 2026·19:30
Odds comparison
| Market | Pinnacle | Best |
|---|---|---|
| Sevilla | 4.32 | 4.32 |
| Draw | 3.49 | 3.49 |
| Atletico Madrid | 1.95 | 1.95 |
Metis Forecast
model + marketSevilla
22%
Draw
28%
Atletico Madrid
50%
Sevilla 0.98 xGexpected goals1.50 xG Atletico Madrid
Atletico Madrid win 50% of the current Metis Forecast.
Both teams score in 50% of simulations.
The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (13.2%).
Sevilla score at least twice in 25%; Atletico Madrid in 45%.
1–1 13.2%0–1 12.6%1–2 10.3%0–2 9.6%0–0 9.2%1–0 6.4%
Scoreline distribution
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 12.6 | 9.5 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 13.2 | 10.3 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 5.4 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
rows = Sevilla goals · columns = Atletico Madrid goals · % of simulations
Match outcomes
Both teams score50%
Over 1.5 goals72%
Over 2.5 goals45%
Over 3.5 goals24%
Over 4.5 goals11%
Sevilla clean sheet21%
Atletico Madrid clean sheet38%
Sevilla score 2+25%
Atletico Madrid score 2+45%
Sevilla score 3+8%
Model vs market
| Source | Sevilla | Draw | Atletico Madrid |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 28% | 29% | 43% |
| Market (de-vigged) | 22% | 28% | 50% |
| Metis Forecast | 22% | 28% | 50% |
The Metis Forecast combines the model's scoreline structure with de-vigged market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model output is kept separate and benchmarked independently.
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Recent form
Sevilla
| 17 Aug | A | vs Athletic Club | 2–3 | L |
| 25 Aug | H | vs Getafe | 1–2 | L |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Girona | 2–0 | W |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Elche | 2–2 | D |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Alaves | 2–1 | W |
Atletico Madrid
| 17 Aug | A | vs Espanyol | 1–2 | L |
| 23 Aug | H | vs Elche | 1–1 | D |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Alaves | 1–1 | D |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Villarreal | 2–0 | W |
| 21 Sept | A | vs Mallorca | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
| 11 Apr 26 | SevillavsAth Madrid | 2 – 1 |
| 1 Nov 25 | Ath MadridvsSevilla | 3 – 0 |
Sevilla: 1W 0D 1L in last 2
Model context
| Stat | Sevilla (Home) | Atletico Madrid (Away) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 57.9% | 57.9% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 52.6% | 47.4% |
| Clean sheet | 15.8% | 31.6% |
| Avg goals | 2.58 | 2.63 |
Home stats use Sevilla's home record; away stats use Atletico Madrid's away record this season.