Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid — La Liga result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 29 August 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 3.8 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Sevilla
22%
Draw
28%
Atletico Madrid
50%
pick · result
Final score
1–3
Top pick landed
Metis gave an Atletico Madrid win 49.9% before kick-off, and its most likely result was an Atletico Madrid win. Expected goals 1.02–1.52 against 1–3 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (13.3%), 0–1 (12.2%), 1–2 (10.6%). It finished 1–3.
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Sevilla
| 15 Aug | H | vs Rayo Vallecano | 2–1 | W |
| 22 Aug | A | vs Athletic Club | 3–1 | W |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Atletico Madrid | 1–3 | L |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Espanyol | 1–1 | D |
| 11 Sept | H | vs Valencia | 1–0 | W |
Atletico Madrid
| 19 Aug | H | vs Malaga | 2–0 | W |
| 23 Aug | H | vs Villarreal | 2–2 | D |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Sevilla | 3–1 | W |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Athletic Club | 0–3 | L |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Real Sociedad | 3–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Sevilla (Home · 4 matches) | Atletico Madrid (Away · 3 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 75.0% | 33.3% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 75.0% | 100.0% |
| Clean sheet | 25.0% | 33.3% |
| Avg goals | 3.00 | 3.33 |
Home stats use Sevilla's home record; away stats use Atletico Madrid's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.