Santander vs Alaves — La Liga result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 12 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 3.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Santander
37%
pick · result
Draw
28%
Alaves
35%
Final score
2–1
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Santander win 36.7% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Santander win. Expected goals 1.53–1.34 against 2–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (13.1%), 1–2 (9.7%), 0–1 (8.1%). It finished 2–1.
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Santander
| 16 Aug | H | vs Villarreal | 2–2 | D |
| 23 Aug | A | vs Getafe | 0–1 | L |
| 28 Aug | H | vs Elche | 3–2 | W |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Rayo Vallecano | 2–3 | L |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Alaves | 2–1 | W |
Alaves
| 15 Aug | H | vs Getafe | 3–0 | W |
| 20 Aug | A | vs Rayo Vallecano | 1–1 | D |
| 28 Aug | H | vs Villarreal | 1–0 | W |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Osasuna | 5–2 | W |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Santander | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Santander (Home · 6 matches) | Alaves (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 83.3% | 80.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 100.0% | 60.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 20.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.67 | 3.00 |
Home stats use Santander's home record; away stats use Alaves's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.